How to Predict Google’s Algorithm Changes

One of the ways you can become an SEO expert is to learn all about Google’s secret algorithm. Its algorithm dictates everything that happens in Google’s search result. The algorithm is the key that can unlock insane amounts of wealth, but it can also be the penalty that can ruin your online business.
It sounds like a crazy task to try to understand the algorithm, but there are ways. After years of learning, teaching, and watching SEO in action on thousands of different websites, I have developed a process for predicting Google’s algorithm changes.
And no, I don’t have all the answers. I’m not pretending to have some prophetic insight into Google’s next move, and this isn’t some scammy tell-all about the latest algorithmic loophole.
This is a practical how-to guide that equips you with knowledge that will help you make a good guess at how the algorithm is going to change over time.

Discover the known facts about the algorithm

In order to understand how the algorithm will change in the future, you first need to understand what it looks like right now.

SEOs Mixed On Fearing Google's Knowledge Graph

Last month, we created a poll asking if you fear Google's knowledge graph.

The reason was surrounded around the news of Google's Singhal around the swiss army knife analogy and if that is Google's true intent. Go read up about that if you do not know what I am talking about.

In short, the SEO space is kind of mixed on their feelings of fearing or being scared of Google's end goal with the Knowledge Graph.

Most said, 45%, that they do not fear Google's Knowledge graph but 17% said they sometimes do and 37% said they do fear it. So 55% do fear the knowledge graph on some level and 45% said they do not.
Forum discussion continued at WebmasterWorld.

62% Say Attacking Google's Matt Cutts Is Wrong

I am happy to say that the majority of our industry thinks that attacking Google's head of search spam, Matt Cutts, as wrong. I ran a poll asking Should SEOs/Webmasters Attack Google's Matt Cutts? This was an anonymous poll, so I expected the response to be much more negative but only 34% said they think it is appropriate to attack Matt Cutts. 62% said it is not appropriate and 4% said they do not know. To learn more about this topic, see our post from couple weeks ago. We had almost 500 responses to this poll, but... Disclaimer: Please see my poll disclaimer post before coming to any conclusions on these results. Forum discussion continued at Cre8asite Forums.

How SEOs Would React To Google Dropping Links As A Ranking Factor

As you know, Yandex, the popular Russian search engine, officially dropped link factors from their ranking algorithm within specific sectors. Google's Matt Cutts said dropping links in Google's ranking algorithm would make for worse search results - so they likely won't be doing that any time soon. But what if they did? That is the questioned we asked you and with 330+ responses, I wanted to share the results. If Google dropped links from their ranking algorithm you would be: 35% said, very excited 32% said, curious 18% said, very concerned 8% said, just be... 6% said, they would be over and done with
Disclaimer: Please see my poll disclaimer post before coming to any conclusions on these results. Forum discussion continued at WebmasterWorld.

Google Slaps Another Guest Blog Network: PostJoint

Google Slaps Another Guest Blog Network: PostJoint

Google’s Matt Cutts somewhat confirmed on Twitter that Google has taken action on another guest blogging network. This network is named PostJoint and claims “there’s no footprints.”

Someone tweeted to Matt that PostJoint was penalized.

In fact, if you check out Google for a search on their name, their web site no longer ranks on the first page.

Matt Cutts this morning confirmed it on Twitter saying “any link or guest blog network that claims to have “zero footprints” is waving a giant red flag.”

Google's Cutts On Big SEO Myths Are....

Google's Matt Cutts released a video on the topic of some of the largest SEO myths out today.

He broke it down into two categories:

(1) Ads and their influence on organic results.

(2) Quick fixes to break Google's algorithm.

On the ads from, Matt Cutts said there are two myths. (1) If you buy ads, your organic rankings will go higher. (2) If you don't buy ads, your rankings will go higher. He also added that people think that Google makes changes to their organic results to drive more people to buy ads. All of this is untrue and a myth according to Matt Cutts.

On the quick fix end, Matt said there is too much "group think" in the forums and black hat forums. He said he sees this all the time where for a couple months one person will say tactic X works awesome, then a few months later, tactic Y and so on. For example, someone might say article directories work, then later guest blogging, then later link wheels and this process goes on and on. Also, someone might say a specific tool works very well. Matt said, the truth is, if someone found a loop hole, they wouldn't sell it as an ebook or software product, they'd use it themselves for as long as possible before others catch on.

70% Said Google's Penguin 2.1 Update Hurt them

About six-months ago, Google unleashed a major update to Penguin, the Penguin 2.1 update.

The earlier feedback from that update was that is was a big impact to webmasters and mostly SEOs who used links in an aggressive manner.

So I posted a poll asking you how you did with the update. Being that six-months later there has been no reports of a new Penguin refresh or update, I figured I post the poll results today.

We had over 2,800 responses to the poll, and 70% said they saw a drop in Google referrer traffic after the update. So 70% seemed to have been negatively impacted by it. While only 7%, or just about 200 people, reported their sites recovered from a previous Penguin update with Penguin 2.1. 6% said they saw an increase in traffic, where one site goes down, another benefits. And 17% said they saw no change at all before or after.

Here is the pie chart:

Again, we are still waiting for a Penguin refresh for over six-months. I think we are due one soon.

Only 13% Claim Google's Disavow Tool Worked For Them

We ran a poll late last year asking did Google's disavow link tool work for you or not?

As you know, the Google Disavow Tool launched in October of 2012. Since then webmasters and SEOs have been obsessed with it and using it all the time.

But does it work? Does it help you improve your rankings and remove penalties? Well, I know for a fact it does help remove penalties, but does that lead to better rankings always? Not always.

We polled our audience and with 670+ responses and only 13% of those said using this tool worked for them. 37% said they are not sure if it worked or not and 50% said they are confident it had no impact.

Here is the pie chart:

Disclaimer: Please see my poll disclaimer post before coming to any conclusions on these results.

Forum discussion continued at Black Hat World.